Goldwind Technology (002202): Turning point of wind turbines has reached the turnover rate and profitability resonance upwards

Goldwind Technology (002202): Turning point of wind turbines has reached the turnover rate and profitability resonance upwards
Investment Highlights Event: The company announced the third quarter report of 2019 and achieved revenue of 247.35 trillion, an increase of 38.84%; net profit attributable to mother 15.91 trillion, down 34.24%; net profit of non-attributed mothers is 14.29 trillion, down 37.91%; EPS 0.37 yuan, ROE 5.33%.Among them, 3Q19 achieved revenue of 90.2 billion yuan, an increase of 32.65%; net profit attributable to mother 4.0.6 billion, down 54.30%; net profit of non-attributed mothers4.08 million yuan, down 53.41%; EPS 0.10 yuan, ROE 1.37%, performance is in line with expectations. Profitability rebounded month-on-month, and the turning point of the wind turbine has arrived.The company’s gross profit and net profit in the third quarter of 19 were 19 respectively.12% / 4.38% change -7 every year.77 / -8.78 PCT, which is a +1 change from the previous month.17 / -4.82PCT.Due to the poor winds in the third quarter, the proportion of high-margin power generation business decreased. We expect that the company’s gross profit margin increase will always be due to the increase in the gross profit margin of wind turbines. The turning point of wind turbines has reached. Fan sales remained high, and the trend of large-scale expansion was obvious.1Q-3Q19 company’s external sales capacity reached 5245MW, of which 1Q-3Q19 external sales were 929/2262 / 2054MW, maintaining a high level.From the perspective of sales structure, the proportion of different scales in 3Q19 external sales and their chain changes were 2S (58).6%, compared with the previous quarter: -8.2PCT) / 2.5S (24.1%, quarterly ratio: +1.9PCT) / 3S (12.8%, compared with the previous quarter: +4.4PCT) / 6S (3.8%, compared with the previous quarter: +2.4PCT) / 1.5MW (0.6%, QoQ: -0.5PCT), large-scale trend is obvious. Both the volume and price of the 夜来香体验网 bidding market rose, and the wind turbines entered a profit recovery channel.In the first quarter to the third quarter of 19, the number of domestic open tenders has reached 49.9GW, an annual increase of 108.5%, exceeding the highest annual tenders in previous years.From the tender price point of view, since the fourth quarter of 2018, the average bid price of each unit has continued to rise, and the increase has been expanding: (1) September 2019, 2.The average bid price of 5MW-class units was 3898 yuan / kW, which was 17% higher than the price low in August last year;The average bidding price for 0MW-class units was above 3700 yuan / kW, reaching 3900 yuan / kW in September.Consider fan 1-1.In the five-year delivery cycle, the focus of wind turbine products, the large-scale delivery and the gross profit margin of 3Q19 wind turbines have rebounded from the previous quarter, and the wind turbine sector will enter a stage of rising volume and profit. Investment suggestion: The turning point of the wind turbine has been reached, the turnover rate and profitability will rebound and the ROE will enter a stage of rapid improvement.It is expected that the net profit will be 32% in 2019-2021.71, 46.21 and 55.68 ppm, increasing by 1 each year.68%, 41.27%, 20.51%, the current budget (A shares) corresponding to three years PE is 16, 11, 9 times, maintain “Buy” rating. Risk alert events: market competition risk, risk of abandoning wind and electricity, exchange rate risk.