Goldwind Technology (002202): Turning point of wind turbines has reached the turnover rate and profitability resonance upwards

Goldwind Technology (002202): Turning point of wind turbines has reached the turnover rate and profitability resonance upwards
Investment Highlights Event: The company announced the third quarter report of 2019 and achieved revenue of 247.35 trillion, an increase of 38.84%; net profit attributable to mother 15.91 trillion, down 34.24%; net profit of non-attributed mothers is 14.29 trillion, down 37.91%; EPS 0.37 yuan, ROE 5.33%.Among them, 3Q19 achieved revenue of 90.2 billion yuan, an increase of 32.65%; net profit attributable to mother 4.0.6 billion, down 54.30%; net profit of non-attributed mothers4.08 million yuan, down 53.41%; EPS 0.10 yuan, ROE 1.37%, performance is in line with expectations. Profitability rebounded month-on-month, and the turning point of the wind turbine has arrived.The company’s gross profit and net profit in the third quarter of 19 were 19 respectively.12% / 4.38% change -7 every year.77 / -8.78 PCT, which is a +1 change from the previous month.17 / -4.82PCT.Due to the poor winds in the third quarter, the proportion of high-margin power generation business decreased. We expect that the company’s gross profit margin increase will always be due to the increase in the gross profit margin of wind turbines. The turning point of wind turbines has reached. Fan sales remained high, and the trend of large-scale expansion was obvious.1Q-3Q19 company’s external sales capacity reached 5245MW, of which 1Q-3Q19 external sales were 929/2262 / 2054MW, maintaining a high level.From the perspective of sales structure, the proportion of different scales in 3Q19 external sales and their chain changes were 2S (58).6%, compared with the previous quarter: -8.2PCT) / 2.5S (24.1%, quarterly ratio: +1.9PCT) / 3S (12.8%, compared with the previous quarter: +4.4PCT) / 6S (3.8%, compared with the previous quarter: +2.4PCT) / 1.5MW (0.6%, QoQ: -0.5PCT), large-scale trend is obvious. Both the volume and price of the 夜来香体验网 bidding market rose, and the wind turbines entered a profit recovery channel.In the first quarter to the third quarter of 19, the number of domestic open tenders has reached 49.9GW, an annual increase of 108.5%, exceeding the highest annual tenders in previous years.From the tender price point of view, since the fourth quarter of 2018, the average bid price of each unit has continued to rise, and the increase has been expanding: (1) September 2019, 2.The average bid price of 5MW-class units was 3898 yuan / kW, which was 17% higher than the price low in August last year;The average bidding price for 0MW-class units was above 3700 yuan / kW, reaching 3900 yuan / kW in September.Consider fan 1-1.In the five-year delivery cycle, the focus of wind turbine products, the large-scale delivery and the gross profit margin of 3Q19 wind turbines have rebounded from the previous quarter, and the wind turbine sector will enter a stage of rising volume and profit. Investment suggestion: The turning point of the wind turbine has been reached, the turnover rate and profitability will rebound and the ROE will enter a stage of rapid improvement.It is expected that the net profit will be 32% in 2019-2021.71, 46.21 and 55.68 ppm, increasing by 1 each year.68%, 41.27%, 20.51%, the current budget (A shares) corresponding to three years PE is 16, 11, 9 times, maintain “Buy” rating. Risk alert events: market competition risk, risk of abandoning wind and electricity, exchange rate risk.

Bank of Chengdu (601838) Quarterly Review: Excellent Asset Quality and High Growth

Bank of Chengdu (601838) Quarterly Review: Excellent Asset Quality and High Growth

Event: On the evening of October 30, Chengdu Bank disclosed 3Q19 results: revenue 93.

0.2 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of +10.

5%; net profit attributable to mother 40.

0.7杭州夜网论坛 billion, +18.

01%; ROE (annualization) is estimated to be 12.

twenty three%.

As of the end of September 19, the asset scale was US $ 543.1 billion, with a NPL ratio of 1.

45%, loan-to-loan ratio of 3.

74%.

Opinion: The rapid growth of revenue growth is a base effect, and net profit continues to grow at a high speed.

After 15 years of concentrated exposure to risks, risk appetite has been depressed, 16 years have seen a low growth rate in performance, and 17 years have gradually come out of the low.

Since 17 years, the growth rate of revenue has continued to rise. By 1H18, its growth rate reached a stage high, and it has since declined.

Revenue growth in 1H19 was 10.

5%, the earlier 1H19 fell slightly, mainly due to the high base effect of 1H18.

Net profit continued to increase.

19Q1 / 1H19 / 深圳spa会所 3Q19 return to the mother net profit growth rate was 22.

8%, 18.

0% / 18.

0%, the trend of high growth is still maintained under the high base of 18 years, which gradually shows that its high growth is stable and sustainable, or it marks one of the warnings of its poor digestion.

The net interest margin fell slightly, and the ROE exceeded the 3Q19 net interest margin by 2.

07%, down 8BP earlier in 1H19; the slight downward spread of interest rates reflects the decline in asset yield and resistance to rising costs.

However, the listed city commercial banks with net interest margins still have an average advantage.

Chengdu Bank has a sustainable and better customer base, and the cost of debt has certain advantages, only 2 in the third quarter of 19th.

09%.

The low return on assets is sufficient to match the risk appetite, which also proves its better asset quality.

ROE leads.

In the third quarter of 19, the revised ROE (annualization) reached 12.

23%, leading level for listed banks.

Thanks to the rapid growth of earnings, ROE is located in the upward channel.

The risk appetite on the loan side has not improved, and the risk appetite after 15 years of guaranteed asset quality in the future is low, which is reflected in: 1) The proportion of loans to high-risk public and retail sectors is only 12.
.

6% (up to 42 at 13 years.

0%, 28 in 15 years.

5%), unprecedented pressure drop, especially retail, almost just a loan; 2) Embracing infrastructure / municipal loans, leasing business services and water conservancy and environmental public facilities are the top two industries for public companies, and the proportion of loans in 1H19 increasedUp to 2.

9 pct to 42.

1%.

This strategy of low risk appetite remained in 1H19.

Bad and forward-looking indicators have fallen sharply.
Non-performing rate in the third quarter of 19
45%, concerned about the loan rate1.

22%, all continue the downward trend.

1H19 overdue ratio / overdue 90+ ratio are 1.

82% / 1.

09%, down 28BP / 41BP earlier.

The proportion of non-performing high-income areas in the loan structure has dropped, and future risk exposures have also contracted.

Investment suggestion: bad liquidation or near end, and continuous high net profit growth. Bank of Chengdu suffered from bad outbreaks in 15 and 16 years, and the risk was significantly reduced. It requires several disposals and credit structure adjustments.

In the third quarter of 19, asset quality remained excellent, and future non-performing income was not significant.

Bank of Chengdu has a better customer base, and is steadily advancing its transformation towards “refining, big retail, digital”.

Committed to the outstanding asset quality of Chengdu Bank, ROE leads, giving it 1.

Double the 20-year PB target estimate, corresponding to a target price of 12.

17 yuan / share, maintain buy evaluation.

Risk warning: Chengdu regional economy has obvious downside risks; interest margins have fallen sharply.

Shanghai Airport (600009): Core Asset Bank Stable and Far

Shanghai Airport (600009): Core Asset Bank Stable and Far

Event: On March 22, Shanghai Airport released its 2018 annual report (1) Business: Gradually achieving 50 aircraft takeoffs and landings.

480,000 times, an increase of 1 every year.

61%; passengers exploded 7,400.

650,000 person-times, an increase of 5 in ten years.

72%, of which 3,757 were international and regional passengers.

380,000 person-times, an annual increase of 8.

23%, international and regional tourists accounted for 50.

77%.

(2) Finance: Initially realized operating income of 93.

13 ppm, an increase of 15 in ten years.

51%; realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies42.

31 ppm, an increase of 14 in ten years.

88%; net profit after deduction is 42.

35 ppm, an increase of 14 in ten years.

92%.

Comments: 1.

In the non-aviation-dominated era, retail revenue continued to grow at a high rate. In 2018, Shanghai Airport achieved aviation revenue39.

70 ppm, a six-year increase of 6.

58%, benefiting from the optimization of passenger structure, its growth rate is slightly higher than takeoffs and landings and passenger explosions.

Non-aviation revenue 53.

44 trillion, an increase of 3 compared to 2017.

.

57% to 57.

38%, of which commercial retail revenue was 39.

86 ppm, an increase of 33 in ten years.

22%, passenger spending capacity continued to significantly improve.

On the cost side, operating costs total 44.

99 ppm, an increase of 11 years.

21%, slightly higher than expected, mainly due to the increase in maintenance costs and commissioned management costs in operating costs.

Specifically, maintenance costs increased for the second time in the past in 2015, and the increase was one-off; the increase in entrusted management fees was affected by the increase in tax revenue and the tender of the new satellite agency business, and it is likely to continue to rise in the future.

Looking forward to 2019, the overall risk of Shanghai Airport’s cost side can be controlled. In terms of rent, it is expected that the rent paid by the company to the group in 2019 will increase by 50%, which is 3 higher than in 2018.

US $ 4.7 billion, with limited new rents. At the same time, the company disclosed that the satellite office budget was US $ 16.7 billion, making the impact of depreciation clearer.

2.

The launch of the Satellite Hall is imminent. Starting a new cycle of growth and new capacity allocation is an important means of opening up the airport’s value space. Looking at major domestic hub airports, the commissioning of new capacity is often the beginning of a new round of airport value enhancement.

Shanghai Airport has entered a mature stage. The passenger structure has been continuously optimized, and the passenger consumption capacity has continued to improve. It is able to cross the infrastructure cycle through the increase of non-airline income levels.

Specifically, the value increase brought by the commissioning of the new satellite hall was realized in multiple dimensions.

① In terms of supply, new throughput opens up the upstream of Shanghai Airport, and the space for optimization of the upper limit and passenger structure will increase in the future; ② In terms of duty-free business, the duty-free area will be increased from 6,600 square meters to 16,915 square meters, and the increase in duty-free area will increase passengersThe increase of consumption power will further release its tax-exempt income elasticity; ③ In terms of advertising revenue, the commissioning of the satellite hall will bring new advertising revenue. At present, the advertising contract of Shanghai Airport is shortened earlier, and its profitability fully reflects the advertising of Shanghai AirportBusiness value. After the new satellite hall is put into production, it will become a new advertising contract. Although the current business model and advertising area are unknown, the value of the advertising business at Shanghai Airport is certain. The new advertising contract brings more value space.Inevitable trend.

3.The tax-free bonus is still in the release period, seizing certain opportunities, and the first-tier city airport is the highest quality core asset of China’s civil aviation industry.
The proportion of non-aviation revenue of Shanghai Airport is further increased, and it is clear again that it is entering the era of non-aviation introduction.

The Shanghai Airport at this stage must re-examine its investment value from two aspects.

First, the performance increase brought by the increase of the tax-free deduction rate is deterministic, and the value should be realized in advance to reflect that the tax-free deduction rate of the T2 terminal in 2019 will be 深圳spa会所 increased to 42.

5%, the one-time growth momentum of tax-exempt income has been identified.

Second, we must pay attention to the opportunity for performance growth brought about by the increase in passenger consumption levels and demand growth. The continued high growth of commercial airport rental income in Shanghai Airport from 2017 to 2018 is a reflection of the value of passenger consumption levels.

Compared with Asia-Pacific, European airports with relatively mature business models, the per capita non-air revenue of international passengers in Shanghai Airport in 2018 was 93 yuan, which has reached the global leading level. Considering the continuous release of on-board production capacity and the increase of the deduction rate, it has become a global internationalIt is only a matter of time before the airport with the highest consumer spending power.

Choosing Shanghai Airport at the current time is to be friends with time. The long-term steady growth trend has been clear, and the rest is just waiting for time for feedback.

4.

Investment suggestion: The company’s operating income is expected to be 122 in 2019-2021.

38, 140.

22, 151.

65 ppm, net profit was 51.

61, 58.

06, 67.

04 trillion, corresponding to 22 PE.

38 times, 19.

90 times, 17.

23 times.

Maintain the “Recommended” level.

Risk reminders: aviation accidents, major policy changes, the rapid growth of tax-free business, investment income has fallen sharply, operating costs have risen sharply, and the duty-free shop business in the city has hit

Joyson Electronics (600699): Consolidated thickening performance, abundant orders, guaranteed growth

Joyson Electronics (600699): Consolidated thickening performance, abundant orders, guaranteed growth

Brief description of results: The company’s annual report for 2018 and the first quarter of 2019 reported revenue of USD 56.2 billion in 2018, an increase of 111%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies13.

2 ‰, an increase of 233% in ten years, net profit after deducting non-attribution to mother is 9.

10,000 yuan.

The company intends to use capital reserves to transfer 4 shares for every 10 shares to all shareholders.

In the first quarter of 2019, it realized revenue of USD 15.4 billion, an increase of 121% year-on-year, and realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies2.

80,000 yuan, a 10-year increase of 793%, net profit after 南京桑拿网 deducting non-attribution to 2.

9 trillion, a big increase of 2315% in ten years.

The performance was in line with expectations, and consolidated the results.

In terms of business, in April 2018, the company completed the acquisition of Takata and became the second largest passive safety supplier in the world. In 2018, the company’s automotive safety business achieved revenue of 42.9 billion US dollars, and gradually realized a substantial increase.

Automotive electronics and functional components achieved revenue growth of 2% and 23%, respectively.

The company’s gross profit margin in 2018 was 17.

0%, an increase of 0 from 2017.

6 averages, gross profit margin for the first quarter of 2019 was 17.
.

15%, basically flat for one year.

In terms of cost rate, the cost during the year 2018 was fifteen.

2%,北京夜网 zero for one year.

8 averages, cost rate 12 during 2019.

8%, about 2 years ago.

8 units.

Ample orders in hand, stable growth can be expected.

At present, the company’s automotive electronics business has more than 17 billion new orders. The HMI business sits at the core partners of Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Ford, GM and other internationally renowned vehicle manufacturers. It has a mature product system and high-quality customer structure.

Intelligent car linkage, simultaneous development at home and abroad, the foreign market has obtained Volkswagen and Audi brand vehicle information systems, and entered mass production in 2020; the country has received North and South Volkswagen MQB and MEB platform orders and entered mass production in 2019.

In terms of new energy electronics, VW, Mercedes-Benz, Nissan, Ford and other customers have successively received new energy vehicle management system orders.

In terms of automotive safety, the company has continued to optimize and integrate after the completion of Takata’s mergers and acquisitions. At present, it has received more than 55 billion new orders with a gross profit margin from December 2017.

6% increased to 15.

7%.

Active safety product driver monitoring systems have been mass-produced in some Cadillac models.

Earnings forecasts and investment advice.

The company’s deep deployment of driverless, new energy vehicle electronics, and global technology leadership will lead the company to become an international component giant through extension + integration.

Expected 2019?
The net profit attributable to mothers will be 13 in 2021.

7/15.

2/17.

700 million, EPS is 1.

44/1.

60/1.

87 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.
Risk warning: The global auto industry’s production and sales growth rate is lower than expected; Takata’s integration is lower than expected

HKUST News Flying (002230): Successful bid 8.5.9 billion AI + large-scale application of education to the next city

HKUST News Flying (002230): Successful bid 8.5.9 billion 南宁桑拿 AI + large-scale application of education to the next city
Successful bid 8.5.9 billion orders.The company announced on December 23 that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Shandong Kexun, became the sole service provider for the “Teaching Students Based on Their Aptitude” artificial intelligence + educational innovation application demonstration zone project in Qingdao West Coast New District.5.9 billion.The amount of a single project reached 10% of the company’s operating income in 2018.85% is the premise of the large-scale demonstration application of the company’s education business, which helps the company’s education business to further form a good application demonstration in the country. Typical cases of large-scale applications.The main construction content of the Qingdao Demonstration Area for Teaching Demonstration Project includes: high-quality balanced services for education in the region, focusing on optimizing the basic support services for education in the region; advancing services for demonstrating education for students according to their aptitude, focusing on artificial intelligence to provide teachers with aptitude for teaching, and individualized learning services for students; education demonstration and creationServices, focusing on providing education and demonstration services for big data, career planning, and intelligent management; teacher information literacy improvement services, focusing on the development of teachers’ professional capabilities, providing training and teaching and research services.The project not only involves many key artificial intelligence technologies including natural language understanding, knowledge mapping, logical reasoning, and deep learning. At the same time, there must be large-scale practical application cases of related technologies in the field of education as a guarantee for project construction and implementation. Core technologies and landing scenarios continued to lead.In the past two years, the company has won more than 20 international firsts in key core technology areas of artificial intelligence. The core technology has always maintained an international leading position, which has established higher technical barriers and leading advantages for the company’s market competition for various products.With the continuous application of data-driven + expert knowledge and experience in actual application scenarios, artificial intelligence algorithms continue to iteratively progress, and the scale of landing applications continues to expand.In the field of education, the company adheres to the concept of “artificial intelligence assists education, and educates students according to their aptitude,” and actively promotes the innovation of education and teaching models. Through the in-depth application of unique artificial intelligence technology in the education industry, it covers the digital and intelligent education of the main scene of education.Learning environment, realizing teaching according to aptitude, and promoting education progress.At present, HKUST Xunfei Smart Education products have covered more than 25,000 schools across the country. Enter the AI dividend redemption period.At present, Xunfei has entered Strategy 2.Stage 0, enter the AI dividend redemption period. We believe that under the replacement of stable revenue growth, expected expenses are controlled, and we expect Q4 profit to show accelerated growth.It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent in 2019-2021 will be 8 respectively.52, 11.65, 15.52 trillion, the corresponding EPS is 0.39, 0.53, 0.71 yuan.Comprehensive consideration, given the company’s 19-year dynamic PS7-8 times, the 6-month reasonable market value range is 759.08-867.52 million, the company’s current share capital is 21.9.9 billion shares, corresponding to a 6-month reasonable value range of 34.52-39.45 yuan, given a “preliminary market” rating. risk warning.The development of the artificial intelligence industry was less than expected. The company’s consumer, education, and political and legal landing speed was lower than expected. The 19-year performance was lower than expected.

Is Ge Ge Liu’s new fund that hits the iron hot?

Is Ge Ge Liu’s new fund that hits the iron hot?

Author: under Peili Rui grid before Liu Sung preoccupations annual results three halo, GF Fund “build on the progress,” today released a new fund featuring the grid Liu Sung Gang – GF hybrid technological innovation.

  Blue Whale Finance learned from various channels that as of the close of the afternoon, the subscription scale of Guangfa Technology Innovation and Mix has exceeded 15 billion. If calculated according to the scale limit of 1 billion, the placement ratio may be less than 6.

67%.

  However, it is important to remind that the historical performance does not represent future performance and the annual ranking does not represent future ranking. Liu Gezhen’s high-light performance this year is closely related to factors such as technology stock market, high position concentration, and holding of heavy positions. However,Its investment style is relatively aggressive. In the past years, its performance conversion has made breakthroughs. The marketing strategy of fund companies based on their annual performance rankings needs to be cautious. Investors need to be cautious about the “blind chase” -type snapping behavior based on this year’s ranking expectations.

  The dark horse fund manager mentioned that Liu Gezheng when he hit the iron while hot, and investors who are familiar with the performance of public fund this year will not be unfamiliar.

  According to wind data statistics, as of December 19, the annual internal rate of return of the three funds including Liu Ge’s GF Shuangqing upgrade, GF innovation and upgrade, GF Diversity and Emerging were 124.

43%, 113.

21%, 108.

76%, one person has won the top three performance of public funds this year.

In addition, Liu Ge ‘s other GF small-cap growth year-round income also reached 96.

74%, ranking 10th in the performance list.

  Four of the top ten are all their own funds, and this year is the highest year since Liu Gezhen served as the fund manager for six years.

  Under the focus of the market, GF Fund also hit the iron while it was hot, and handed over the key product of the science and technology theme fund to Liu Gezhen to manage. GF Technology Innovation started selling today (December 20) after receiving approval from the beginning of the month.Passion was quickly ignited.

  At 11am, 2 hours after the sale, the subscription scale of Guangfa Technology Innovation Hybrid has exceeded 60 billion; at 1pm, 4 hours after the sale, the fundraising scale has exceeded 10 billion; at the close of the afternoon, the Guangfa Technology Innovation Hybrid fundraising scale has reachedOver 15 billion, if calculated according to the 1 billion initial size limit, the placement ratio is less than 6.

67%.

  ”Guangfa’s technological innovation is not difficult to understand. It has expanded. Liu Gezhen, who has won the top three, has a high degree of popularity in the current market. This is a living sign for marketing. Instead, Liu Gezhen’s expertise is precisely the investment in technology growth stocks.It also coincides with the investment target of the science and technology theme fund.

“Some fund sales people said.

  ”Star-making” and “star-chasing” all need to be cautious, but is Liu Gezhen’s new fund really worth mad grab?

  Looking back on previous years, public offerings of “One Brother” and “One Sister” changed from year to year, and the number of people who fell on the altar was countless. One side was fund companies borrowing annual rankings to make stars, and the other was investors blindly chasing stars based on historical performance and rankings””.

  Take the protagonist of today’s event, Liu Gezhen, as an example. This is actually a fund manager with a relatively aggressive investment style and historical performance conversion. Like Ren Zesong, he was born in the China Post Fund, which is known for its growth stocks.Show off your skills in the bull market in the first half of 2015.

  The management-leading growth of its financial facilities has reached 187 in the first five months of 2015.

50%, ranking the top ten among the industry’s active equity funds in the same period.

  However, the good times did not last long. In June 2015, the end of the bull market also caused a significant retreat in Liu Gezhen’s performance. According to wind statistics, during the one-month period from June 5 to July 5, 2015, the GEM index shrank.36.

76%. In the same period, the Internet media were fused, and Rongtong led the growth. Rongtong New Regional Economy fell by 42%, 39.

6%, 25.

37%.

  When Liu Gezhen resigned from Rongtong in February 2017, only Rongtong’s leading growth position return exceeded 10%. Rongtong New Area and Rongtong Internet Media, two funds established in the bull market, decreased by 49.
.

5%, 43.

5%.

  Leaving Rongtong, Liu Gezhen’s third round of public offering is the GF 淡水桑拿网 Fund.

  However, at the beginning, the big blue chip market in 2017 and the full-scale market decline in 2018 did not bring Liu Gezhen’s ability into full play. For example, the development of GF ‘s small cap and GF ‘s industry-leading mix. Due to the growth of heavy storage technology stocks and media stocksThe performance of these two funds since Liu Gezhen took office in June 2017 to the end of 2018 is -13.

97%, -27.

53%.

  So why is Liu Gezhen’s performance so good this year?

  This is closely related to factors such as the technology stock market, high concentration of positions, and the holding of heavy stocks.

  From the perspective of holding positions, Liu Gezhen still continued his style in China Post and Rongtong, with heavy positions in technology growth stocks and high concentration of positions.

  Take the Guangfa Shuangqing upgrade as an example. At the end of the third quarter, the fund’s top ten heavy stocks included 7 electronic stocks, 2 computer stocks and 1 pharmaceutical stock. The top 10 positions accounted for over 60%.
And technology and medicine are just two hot spots in this year’s market. Liu Ge’s holdings of Shengbang shares, Kangtai Biotechnology, Eternal Lithium Energy, China Software and other stocks are the big bulls this year.
The similarity of Liu Gezhen’s positions is relatively high, and these large bull stocks also appear in Guangfa’s innovation and upgrading, and Guangfa’s diversified and emerging positions.

  In terms of positions, Liu Gezhen has been increasing the stock positions upgraded by GF Shuangqing since the beginning of the year, from 59% in the first quarter to 73% in the second quarter, and has increased to 81% in the third quarter.

  In addition, according to the proportional interim report, Liu Gezhen also mainly increased the electronics industry in the upstream of the 5G industry chain in the third quarter. Four electronic stocks including Zhaoyi Innovation, Tongfu Microelectronics, Changdian Technology, and Ziguang Guowei alternated three quarterly reports.The top ten newcomers, San’an Optoelectronics, Shengbang Co., Ltd. and other electronics industry leaders have also significantly increased their positions, which also contributed to Liu Gezhen’s eye-catching performance.

  Therefore, Liu Gezhen’s performance this year is indeed outstanding, but the position, industry, and high concentration of individual stocks is a double-edged sword. Once the market is switched, it may hinder the retreat. If investors only take this year ‘s performance and rankings as their expectations,”Crazy” Guangfa’s technological innovation is likely to be greatly disappointed.

Yuanzu Shares (603886): Mooncake peak season grows slightly and gradually grows steadily The main tone remains unchanged

Yuanzu Shares (603886): Mooncake peak season grows slightly and gradually grows steadily The main tone remains unchanged

The event company released the third quarter of 2019 report Q1-Q3 2019 to achieve operating income17.

89 trillion, ten years +8.

82%; revenue achieved in a single quarter9.

5.6 billion, +3 in ten years.

80%.

In the first three quarters, the net profit of the shareholders of the listed company was achieved.

7.5 billion, ten years +7.

00%, single Q3 achieved net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies2.

4 billion, previously +3.

90%.

Brief comment on the moon cake, fruit performance is lower than the overall, Q3 revenue growth decline in the first three quarters to achieve revenue.

8.9 billion, an increase of +8.

82% in the third quarter.

5.6 billion, an increase of +3.

80%.

Looking at specific products, Q1-Q3 cakes, Chinese and Western pastries, fruit and mooncakes achieved business income of 43,343, respectively.

64, 55, 680.

76, 6, 151.

07, 66, 698.

160,000 yuan, ten years +9.

17%, +11.

82%, -1.

54%, +3.

38%.

The cake benefit report has some product price adjustment effects. The sales growth of Chinese and Western pastries is significant. The main report is that the interconnected companies, star products, and inlaid flower cakes have been upgraded for raw materials and values to meet consumer demand and achieve stable growth, contributing to the increase in overall revenue.

The decrease in Q3 single quarter growth rate was mainly due to the breakdown of mooncake growth rate. The mooncake achieved revenue in the third quarter6.

6.7 billion, previously +3.

38%, meanwhile, fruit revenue was 2490.

240,000 yuan, at least -18.

71%, collectively lowering the overall income growth rate, mainly because the Mid-Autumn Festival ahead of the season fruit picking time in advance, affecting taste and sales.

In terms of channels, Q1-Q3 operated directly, and the franchise achieved revenues of 149,897, respectively.

80, 24, 021.

140,000 yuan, an increase of 5 every year.

83%, 17.

05%.

Q3 single quarter achieved 79649.

79, 14672.

40,000 yuan income, increase by 1 every year.23%, 18.

75%.

In the first three quarters, the number of franchised stores expanded steadily, extending H1’s total of 642 stores across the country, and channel expansion significantly promoted the increase in turnover.

The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2019Q1-Q3 was 65.

9%, ten years +0.

94pct, Q3 achieved a gross profit margin of 67.

36% every year -0.

07 points.

In the first three quarters, the gross profit margin increased slightly. The company expanded its reporting scale to upgrade its products, launch new products, optimize product structure, drive higher gross profit margin, replace, and benefit from long-term non-withdrawal card carryover. Reduced operating costs directly deteriorated gross profit and increased gross marginwhich performed.

The gross margin of Q3 fluctuated slightly. It is expected to be mainly due to the influence of mooncake products. The general cost of cold packs has increased, and the overall gross margin has a slight margin.

Expenditure on selling expenses increased. Q1-Q3 was 2 in selling expenses.

2 billion, Q3 single quarter 3.

100 million, ten years growth +9.

79%, +4.

97%, the sales expense ratio is 40.

41%, 32.

43%, ten years +0.

32pct, +0.

4pct.

The slight increase in the sales expense ratio was mainly due to the increase in advertising expenses and employment costs, thus driving up the overall expense ratio growth in the first three quarters.

Management expenses for the first three quarters were zero.

8.2 billion, previously +1.

2%; single Q3 is 0.

300 million, at least -6.

9%, the management expense ratio Q1-Q3 is 4.

58% every year -0.

35 pct; Q3 is 3.

14% every year -0.

33 points.

In the first three quarters, the management expense ratio decreased slightly, thereby implementing a preliminary management structure for the company, continuously optimizing management efficiency, and controlling the management expense ratio.

In addition, the company has steadily advanced research and development of new products, and the research and development expenses for the first three quarters were 1,076.

740,000, +3 in the past.

83%; third quarter was 399.

350,000, +1 a year.

71%, R & D expense ratio Q1-Q3 is 0.

60% 北京夜生活网 every year -0.

03pct; Q3 is 0.

42% -0 per year.

01pct.

Financial expenses Q1-Q3 were -22.40,000, ten years -166.

12%; Q3 is -21.

290,000, half a year -220.

39%.

The financial expense ratio Q1-Q3 is -0.

01%, Decade -0.

03pct; Q3 is -0.

02%, year -0.

04 points.

The decrease in financial expenses in the first three quarters was mainly due to the increase in interest income.

Net profit steadily increased during the period Q1-Q3.

7.5 billion, ten years +7.

00%; Q3 returns to mother’s net profit 2.

400 million, previously +3.

90%, Q1-Q3 net margin is 15.

37%, -0 per year.

26 points; Q3 is 25.

1%, ten years +0.

02 points.

Q1-Q3 net profit attributable to mothers increased slightly, mainly benefiting from growth in sales revenue.

In Q3, the increase in net profit attributable to mothers was even smaller, and the impact of small changes in consolidated gross profit margins. According to this report, the company increased its donation to charitable foundations, and external operating expenses reached 1809.

80,000, an annual increase of 205.

36%, affecting the quarter’s profit performance.

Profit forecast: It is expected that the company will realize revenue 21 in 2019-2021.

41, 24.

12, 27.

20 trillion, it is expected that the company’s net profit will be 2 in 2019-2021.

55, 2.

92 and 3.

3.4 billion, corresponding to EPS 1.

06, 1.

22 and 1.

39 yuan / share.

Risk reminders: food safety risks, increased competition risks, business management risks, etc.

Zhengbang Technology (002157) 2019 Interim Report Performance Preview Comment: 2019Q2 Turnaround Losses, Focus on the Development of Pig Breeding Business

Zhengbang Technology (002157) 2019 Interim Report Performance Preview Comment: 2019Q2 Turnaround Losses, Focus on the Development of Pig Breeding Business

Matters: The company releases semi-annual performance notice: the net profit attributable to mothers will decrease.

5 ppm-2.

800 million.

Comment: 2019Q2 turned a loss on a month-on-month basis, and the cost of pig farming is under control.

From January to June 2019, the company expects net profit attributable to mothers to increase by 2.

5 ppm-2.

80,000 yuan, of which, in the second quarter of 2019, net profit attributable to mothers1.

64 ppm-1.

94 trillion, exceeding market expectations.

The total number of companies in Q2 2019 was 140.

60,000 heads, with an average sales price of 14.

At about 6 yuan / kg, the weight of the slaughtering is about 115 kg. We initially estimated that the full cost of the company’s breeding is about 14 / kg, which was 12 before the occurrence of non-blast.

With a full cost of 5 yuan / kg, the company’s hog breeding cost can be controlled.

The company transferred assets + increased capital and focused on the development of pig breeding business.

The company intends to transfer 100% of Jiangxi Zhengbang Crop Protection Co., Ltd. to Jiangxi Yonglian (held by Mr. Lin Yinsun, the actual controller of the company), with a total transfer price of 13.

13.7 billion.

The purpose of this equity transfer is: the company will concentrate resources, focus on building the pig breeding industry chain, and improve the competitiveness of the industry.

Jiangxi Zhengbang Crop Protection achieved net profit in 20181.

One trillionth, this distribution transfer price-earnings ratio is about 12 times, consistent with the acquisition of the property rights of pesticide targets by similar listed companies since December 2018; until March 31, 2019, Jiangxi Zhengbang Crop Protection has net assets4.

1.5 billion yuan, the equity transfer price ratio reached 3.

2 times; the distribution price-earnings ratio and price-to-book ratio for this distribution are reasonable.

In addition, the company plans to invest 1 billion in Jiangxi Zhengbang Breeding Co., Ltd. with its own funds. After the capital increase, the registered capital of Zhengbang Breeding will be increased from 6.

6 ‰ increased to 16.

600 million US dollars, this capital increase is also to promote the development of aquaculture business, enhance the overall operating strength and financing capacity, as the basis for the subsequent development of Zhengbang aquaculture.

The logic of hitting a new high for pig prices across the country has entered the redemption period.

The first severe outbreak occurred in the six provinces of Northeast, Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu, Hebei, and Anhui. It took about 5 months for the pig prices in each place to drop to the lowest level. The second severe outbreak occurred in Guangdong, Guangxi, and Yunnan.It took only about 2 months to reach the bottom, and the decline in pig prices was significantly weaker than the first wave; the third wave of severe epidemics appeared in Sichuan, Hunan, and Hubei, but only caused the national average price to fall slightly in the short term.Prices have stabilized and picked up.

The top ten provinces currently account for 66 of the country’s total pig production.

1%, from high to low, Sichuan, Henan, Hunan, Shandong, Hubei, Yunnan, Hebei, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Jiangxi.

As of now, in general, all major pig producing areas have experienced the baptism of African swine fever, and the production capacity in various places has been clearly cleared. The logic of setting a new high for the national pig price has entered the redemption 深圳桑拿网 period.

Earnings forecasts, estimates and investment ratings.

The non-plague-prone pig breeding industry has greatly reduced capacity, and we expect pig prices to rise to 25-30 yuan / kg before the Spring Festival next year.

Because the development of non-blast vaccines is difficult to achieve overnight, and the establishment and improvement of the pig safety system requires the financial strength of the farm scale, the price of pigs is expected to remain high for a long time, and the advantages of large pig breeding groups are prominent.

We maintain that we expect the company to produce 7 million pigs, 8.4 million pigs, and 10.8 million pigs in 2019-2021, corresponding to a revenue of 255.

7.5 billion, 353.

01 ppm, 390.

9.3 billion, corresponding to net profit attributable to mother 9.

94 ppm, 89.

700 million, 96.880,000 yuan, an increase of 414%, 802% and 8% each year, corresponding to zero income.

42 yuan, 3.

78 yuan, 4.

08 yuan.

The company’s profit high is expected to be reached in 2020. The hog sector is more than 10 times the PE at the high point.

8 yuan, maintaining the “strong push” level.

Risk warning: pig prices fall sharply; disease.

The impact of bancassurance funds on the participation of government bond futures on the stock market-

What is the impact of the approval of bancassurance funds on government bond futures on the stock market?
Original title: Banking and Insurance Funds Approved to Participate in Treasury Bond Futures, What is the Impact on the Market?  ”It will not crowd out stock market funds and has no direct impact on the stock market.”On February 21, major news came that commercial banks and insurance institutions were allowed to participate in the treasury futures market. The first batch of pilot institutions included Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, Construction Bank, and Bank of Communications.  The Securities Regulatory Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the People’s Bank of China, and the China Banking Regulatory Commission have recently issued a joint announcement that allows eligible pilot commercial banks and insurance institutions with investment management capabilities to advance in batches in accordance with the principles of legal compliance, controllable risks, and sustainable business.Participate in government bond futures trading.At the same time, it will play the role of inter-ministerial coordination mechanism to strengthen regulatory cooperation and information sharing.  China Financial Securities Exchange (hereinafter referred to as “China Financial Exchange”) stated that commercial banks and insurance institutions are the main participants in the bond market, and their participation in the treasury bond futures market helps meet the interest rate risk management needs of institutions, enhances the soundness of operations, and further improvesIts ability to serve the real economy.At the same time, the participation of commercial banks and insurance institutions in treasury bond futures will promote the coordinated development of the treasury bond spot market, enrich the futures market investor structure, and promote the function of treasury bond futures.  ”For the entire financial market, the participation of commercial banks in the national debt futures market is an important part of further deepening the reform of the financial sector and further opening up.”Qiao Hongjun, President of Bank of Communications Financial Market Business Center, said.  Regarding the impact on the stock market, the relevant person in charge of the China International Capital Exchange said that commercial banks and insurance funds entering the market can improve the liquidity of the bond market and the efficiency of capital utilization.  Conditions are mature. From overseas experience, banks use interest rate derivatives such as treasury bonds and futures to effectively improve their risk management capabilities, reduce interest rate risk exposure, promote credit growth, and improve their ability to serve the real economy. Investment objectives and strategies of different types of insurance companiesThere are differences, but generally holding bonds such as government bonds and high-grade corporate bonds require risk management through interest rate derivatives such as government bond futures.  So where is the necessity for these commercial banks and insurance institutions to participate in government bond futures?  ”Commercial banks face interest rate risks in the underwriting of treasury bonds, market-making business, bond trading, asset and liability management, etc., and there is an urgent need to participate in the treasury bond futures market.”The relevant person in charge of CICC said.  He specifically analyzed that, first, underwriting syndicate banks with underwriting obligations in the primary market, holding bonds due to underwriting and other factors, need to be treasury risk hedged interest rate risk; second, banks need to treasury bond hedging when combining market maker obligationsThe interest rate risk of tickets improves the quality of quotes and market liquidity. The third is that banks need treasury bond futures to manage the interest rate risk of bond transactions and smooth the profit and loss conversion. The fourth is that banks can use treasury bond futures for asset and liability management to flexibly and efficiently adjust durationTo prevent and resolve market risks.  ”Commercial banks’ participation in the treasury bond futures market has great and far-reaching significance for the commercial banks themselves, the long-term bond market, and the entire financial industry.Qiao Hongjun said that for commercial banks themselves, participating in the treasury bond futures market can effectively improve their own risk management capabilities and asset-liability management; for the bond market, commercial bank participation in the treasury futures market is conducive to promoting innovation in trading business.Improve the liquidity of the bond market and improve the price discovery mechanism of the bond market.  Wang Weidong, general manager of the Global Markets Department of the Bank of China’s head office, analyzed from the impact on the current government bond futures market that commercial banks’ entry into the market will become a rich investor group, thereby increasing market depth, enhancing market liquidity, and further improving the price discovery mechanism.Promote the effectiveness of market pricing; efficiency has also been positive for the national debt spot market since then. Through the organic linkage and integration of the futures market and the spot market, it can not only enhance the liquidity of different types of government bonds, but also promote the gradual curve of government bond yields.Increase and improve, optimize the benchmark interest rate formation mechanism, and gradually improve the market-based interest rate reform process.  In terms of insurance funds, the current investment scale of the domestic insurance industry has exceeded 17 trillion yuan, of which more than 30% are bond investments.”Insurance institutions have long debt end periods and scarce assets matching their maturities. The need to use government bond futures to adjust the gap between asset and liability durations is urgent.”” The relevant person in charge of the China Gold Exchange said.  Under the urgent need, are the conditions for commercial banks and insurance funds to participate in government bond futures mature?  The relevant persons in charge of the above-mentioned CICC responded and weighed. First, commercial banks, insurance funds participating in treasury bond futures are internationally accepted practices. Commercial banks in overseas developed bond markets, insurance funds widely participate in treasury bond futures, and use treasury bond futures for interest rate risk management.It is a commercial bank and insurance fund derivatives trading with rich experience and ability to participate in treasury bond futures. The third is that the treasury bond futures market runs smoothly and has become a commercial bank and insurance fund’s ability to enter the market.  CICC listed 5-year Treasury futures on September 6, 2013, 10-year Treasury futures on March 20, 2015, and 2-year Treasury futures on August 17, 2018, basically covering short, medium and longSystem of government bond futures products.  What is the impact on the entire market?  How will the participation of funds of commercial banks and insurance institutions in the national debt futures market affect the national debt futures spot market and the stock market?  Commercial banks and insurance funds are important participants in the bond spot market, accounting for about 70% of the custody funds in the interbank bond market.  ”Commercial banks and insurance funds participate in the treasury bond futures market, and their trading models and strategies are more abundant, which will further improve the liquidity and pricing efficiency of the treasury bond market and help improve the treasury bond yield curve.”The relevant person in charge of the aforementioned CICC said.  He also pointed out that the merger of commercial banks and insurance funds into the market stabilized bond market volatility and strengthened financial market intervention.With the further advancement of interest rate liberalization, the volatility of the bond market has increased.During the rapid adjustment of the bond market, financial institutions may stop selling debts, and liquidity may be difficult.Commercial banks and insurance funds can take advantage of the characteristics of good liquidity and fast turnover of treasury bond futures. Treasury bond futures can effectively hedge the downside risk of the cash bond market, divert the selling pressure of the bond market, and enhance the vitality and value of financial markets.  As far as the impact on the government bond futures market is concerned, the relevant person in charge of the above-mentioned China International Capital Exchange said that commercial banks, insurance funds and securities, funds and other market participants have different sources of funds, term characteristics and risks. Bank and insurance funds entering the government bond futures market can becomeThe counterparties of other institutions can complement each other’s trading needs, further enhance the liquidity and depth of the market, and promote the function of the government bond futures market.  The bond market and the stock market are relatively independent, and there are significant differences in risk attributes, operation methods, and investor groups.From international experience, commercial banks and insurance funds participate in treasury bond futures for the main purpose of hedging, and have not significantly affected the trend and changes in the stock market.  The relevant person in charge of the above-mentioned China Bullion Exchange said that government bond futures are traded on margin, with high efficiency in capital use and capital occupation.The entry of commercial banks and insurance funds into the market can improve the liquidity of the bond market and the efficiency of capital utilization. It will not crowd out funds in the stock market and has no direct impact on the stock market.When market extremes occur, government bond futures can provide institutions with effective tools for hedging interest rate risks, helping to ensure market stability.  How to invest?  How do banks and insurance funds hedge with government bond futures?  The relevant person in charge of the above said that in the hedging operation of treasury bond futures, investors will reversely establish a futures position based on the spot position, so that the combined risk of futures and spot appears neutral.  Treasury futures can be used to adjust the duration of the investment portfolio.Investors generally shrink the duration of portfolios when interest rates are expected to increase, and extend the duration of portfolios when interest rates are expected to decrease.Although buying and selling spot bonds can also achieve the purpose of adjusting the duration of the portfolio, market shock costs and operating costs are transmitted, and the prospects of government bonds are highly liquid, with low transaction costs, and can more effectively manage and adjust the duration of the portfolio.  In theory, a reasonable spread should be maintained between the national debt futures and the relevant national debt spot, and between different varieties of national debt futures or different month contracts.Arbitrage refers to the transaction behavior that when the spread deviates from a reasonable level, the purchase price is biased towards low assets, the sell price is biased towards high assets, and the position is closed after the spread returns to reasonable, thereby obtaining risk-free returns.  So how do banks and insurance funds arbitrage with government bond futures?  Treasury bond futures arbitrage is often arbitrage by the yield curve.When the expected yield curve becomes steep, buy short-end government bond futures and sell long-term government bond futures; when the expected yield curve flattens, sell short-end government bond futures and buy long-term government bond futures.  For example, in March 2017, the spread between 10-year and 5-year Treasury bonds continued to decline, reaching a historical low since the listing of Treasury futures in September 2013. Some 杭州桑拿网 investors choose Treasury futures for steep curve trading, that is, buying for 5 years10-year Treasury futures, sell 10-year Treasury futures, and close the profit when the 10-year and 5-year spreads return to normal.  Treasury futures intertemporal arbitrage is to use the price difference between forward and near-term contracts to buy on the futures market at the same time and sell two different months of the same type of futures contract.  So, does the government bond futures market have a complete risk control system to ensure the smooth entry of commercial banks and insurance funds into the market?  The relevant person in charge of the above-mentioned CICC said that the national debt futures market has a relatively sound risk management system. Since 2013, the 5-year, 10-year, and 2-year national debt futures have been 深圳桑拿网 successfully listed, and the market has run smoothly and no delivery risk event has occurred.No major violations of laws and regulations have occurred.  He is also competent, and in terms of wind control, the exchange has established a series of systems including margin, daily limit, position limits, large position reports, forced liquidation, and forced lightening.In terms of trading mechanisms, the government bond futures market introduced a market maker system to increase the thickness of market quotations and prevent market liquidity risks.In terms of the delivery system, Treasury bond futures use physical delivery and implement a rolling delivery model to improve delivery efficiency and prevent delivery risks.

Seagull Living (002084): Acquisition of Jaco Polo completes expansion of custom kitchen business

Seagull Living (002084): Acquisition of Jaco Polo completes expansion of custom kitchen business

Event: The company issued an announcement “Announcement on Acquiring the Equity of Guangdong Yacopolo Cabinet Co., Ltd. to Complete the Industrial and Commercial Change Registration and Obtain a Business License.”

In April 2019, the company and Guangzhou Marco Polo Co., Ltd. held a transaction with other counterparts on the “About Guangdong Yaco Polo Cabinet Co., Ltd. Partial Equity Acquisition and Capital Increase Agreement”, and the company will transfer Guangzhou Marco Polo Co., Ltd. to hold GuangdongJaco Polo Cabinet Co., Ltd. 42.

98% equity. At the same time, the company will hold Jaco Polo 67 by increasing its capital to Jaco Polo.

27% equity.

Recently, Jaco Polo completed the assignment of industrial and commercial changes and received the “Business License” issued by the Guangzhou Baiyun District Market Supervision Administration. The company directly holds Jaco Polo42.

98% equity.

Opinion: The combined land leading supply chain that Jaco Polo cut into has a low acquisition price.

Jaco Polo currently has a factory of 80,000 square meters, with an annual throughput of 100,000+ units; an intelligent production base covers an area of nearly 300,000 square meters, and an estimated annual production capacity of 600,000 units.

At present, Jaco Polo has become a supporting partner for hardcover housing projects of many well-known real estate group companies in the country, serving Evergrande, Yuexiu, Poly, R & F and other large national real estate companies.

The transfer price of the equity transfer for this acquisition is divided into two parts: (1) calculated according to the evaluation report issued by the asset appraisal agency, which is 11.46 million yuan; (2) performance commitment consideration, that is, in terms of performance commitment, if Acopolo achieves net profitIf it is not less than 18 million yuan, the transfer price is 12.1 million yuan.

Extend service space and expand custom kitchen business.

After the completion of the acquisition, the company 西安耍耍网 will integrate design, production, sales, installation and maintenance of one-stop service platform for custom cabinets through Jaco Polo, extend the bathroom components to the kitchen space, and lay the foundation for the company’s future expansion of the customized overall kitchen business.This foundation.

Earnings forecast and estimation: The company’s EPS is expected to be 0 in 19-21.

22, 0.

27, 0.

33 yuan, corresponding PE is 22X, 19X, 15X.

Maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk warning: trade frictions intensify, and the overall bathroom business is less than expected.