These stocks benefit the most
The return of the king of brokerage stocks: How long can a strong rebound last?
These stocks benefit the most
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Certain stocks will benefit in depth as 2019 is nearing its end, and the A-share market is beginning to usher in a long-lost strong rebound.
Behind the Shanghai Index’s return to the 3,000 mark is the return of the king of brokerage stocks, a strong upward trend.
As of the close of the afternoon on December 18, Nanjing Securities (601990) has walked out of four daily limit boards, and has been from the closing price of December 7.
65 yuan rose to 11.
21 yuan, a 46-day increase.
Zheshang Securities (601878) also stopped on Dec. 18 and closed at 10.
71 yuan, a gradual increase of 26% in the last four trading days.
Tianfeng Securities (601162) went out of the “six consecutive suns” on the daily line, and has 青岛夜网 been from 5 on December 10.
46 yuan rose to 7 on December 18.
38 yuan, a cumulative increase of 35.
Why are brokerage stocks so strong?
After communicating with a number of securities analysts, surging news reporters found that the logic of the strengthening of the securities sector includes both the external driving force brought by the increase in risk and return of the A-share market and the marginal improvement brought about by policy expectations that exceed expectations.
In terms of stock selection in the securities firm sector, institutions generally recommend investors to pay attention to leading securities firms.
Reason for progress one: The market is picking up, and the securities companies are expected to benefit. Recently, with the boost of multiple positives, the A-share market has seen a wave of new years.
Since December, the Shanghai Composite Index has bottomed out and only two of the 13 trading days have declined.
Since this week, the trend of the Shanghai Index has been even more severe. It jumped upward on December 13 and opened high on December 17. It even hit the 3,000 mark on December 17. It even fell slightly on December 18, but still closed at 3017.
Soochow Securities believes that the positive external factors include at least the following two aspects.
First of all, the text of the first-stage economic and trade agreement between China and the United States has reached agreement, and Sino-US relations are moving towards relaxation.
In fact, the meeting of the Central Economic Bureau decided to continue the overall easing policy and the transition rhythm was relatively stable. In 2020, the “well-off bottom” decided to stabilize the policy.
Great Wall Securities research report also pointed out that since December market risk is expected to significantly increase the denominator factor to promote continuous growth of the stock market, the spring market may have started in advance.
After the shock adjustment since mid-September, the market has double expectations for the market in the coming year.
The structural market of new energy vehicles, 5G, electronics, media and other industries has been opened before December. These pilot industries are also our main targets for the next year.
The agency pointed out that in terms of policy, the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference set the economic policy for next year, focusing on “maintaining stability” and counter-cyclical adjustments, but first mentioned “scientific, robust and flexible macro-policy counter-cyclical adjustment efforts” to prevent assetsBubble risk.
Put forward the “implementation of new development concept”, and point out the key breakthrough directions for next year’s economic policy.
On the foreign side, northbound capital continued to flow in, MSCI expanded its tolerance and increased the division ratio of technology growth industries. Foreign countries continued to increase positions in electronics, computers and other growth industries and relatively undervalued industries.
In the context of the global “asset shortage”, A-shares have a better investment appeal globally. We believe that foreign capital will continue the trend of net inflows in 2020, which will support A-shares.
In terms of liquidity, the current expectation of maintaining a stable multi-year capital level is obvious.
Monetary policy will adhere to the tone of a stable, neutral and flexible transition, maintain an overall bias towards loose funds, and focus on directional transformation and transformation mechanisms for evacuation communications.
Against the backdrop of downward economic pressure, there is still room for policy next year, and currency may continue to be loose in one month. Credit and social financing data are worth looking forward to.
Data released by the Ministry of Finance on December 17 shows that the stamp duty on securities transactions from January to November was $ 115.8 billion, an increase of 21 per year.
7%, confirming from the side that the trading volume brought by the rebound in securities market transactions in 2019 has increased.
The heating up of A-share market transactions will inevitably provide growth momentum for the brokerage business and self-operated business income of securities companies.
Reason two for progress: The favorable policies are frequent, and the future growth of securities companies can be expected. From a policy perspective, dividends in the capital market are being accelerated.
Fu Huifang, a non-bank analyst at Industrial Securities, said: “In early November, the Securities and Futures Commission issued a draft of the refinancing rules to relax a number of operational requirements, and the refinancing market ushered in spring.
Last week, the Politburo meeting and the CSRC meeting successively clarified the direction of the capital market reform in 2020, and proposed to accelerate the reform of the GEM registration system, accelerate the innovation of bond instruments, and increase the supply of futures expenditure products. The future reform dividends will continue to be released.
“It can be seen that on December 23, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange will launch their respective CSI 300 ETF stock option products, and the China Financial Stock Exchange will also list China’s first stock index option product simultaneously.
Institutions generally expect the advent of the big budget era, which they believe will increase market activity.
The surging news reporter noticed that many securities companies have opened the trading channel of stock options to customers for the first time, and the budget will become an incremental business income of the securities companies.
Obviously, the Securities Regulatory Commission officially announced on December 13 “Some Provisions on the Pilot Program for Spin-off of Listed Companies’ Internal Subsidiaries” and placed regulatory gaps in this area.
After the implementation of the new regulations, long-term listed companies have publicly stated their position, and it is expected that the related subsidiaries will be split into A-share listings.
For brokers, this definitely opens up new space for investment banking.
Luo Fenghui, an analyst at Tianfeng Securities, believes that 2020 will be a big year for equity financing.
With the implementation of new regulations for spin-off listing, the GEM and NEEQ reforms have steadily advanced, and gradually restructured policies such as refinancing, mergers and acquisitions, and restructuring. Under the multiple favorable conditions, he predicts that the investment bank’s business income in 2020 is expected to increase by 20% to 66.2 billion.
Another important policy benefit is the introduction of MOM management measures.
On December 6, the Securities and Futures Commission issued the “Guidelines for Managers (MOM) Products of Securities and Futures Operating Institutions Managers (Trial)”, and some people believe that the new rules are designed to guide medium- and long-term funds into the market and promote market liquidity and stability.
Which securities stocks are worth watching?
From the perspective of comprehensive institutions, leading brokerage stocks are still widely favored targets.
Fu Huifang believes that the overall city net book level of the securities firm is about 1.
6 times, the annualized return on net assets of the corresponding industry is between 6% and 7%, which is still at a reasonable estimate.
9 times below the level.
Considering that the policy and fundamentals of securities firms continue to improve, investors are advised to increase their holdings of the securities firm sector.
Investors can continue to recommend high-quality head-to-head brokerage plans for the carrier-level head-to-head brokerage.
The research report of Soochow Securities pointed out that the capital market policies continued to benefit and leading securities firms gradually benefited in depth. It is recommended to focus on leading securities firms Huatai Securities, CITIC Securities and Oriental Fortune.
Wanlian Securities also said that it is optimistic about the performance of the capital market next spring, and it is expected that the profit level of securities firms will pick up.
The brokerage sector is currently estimated to be less than one.
7 times PB (price-to-book ratio). Under the assumption of neutrality, the ROE (return on equity) of the securities industry is expected to be 6 next year.
At around 9%, there is still room for improvement, maintaining the industry’s “Outperform” rating.
The agency said that under the situation of fierce internal and external competition, the industry is clearly concentrated toward the leading position, and the regulatory encouragement to become a leading brokerage firm is obvious. In the future, there may be aircraft carrier-grade Chinese-funded brokerage firms that rival the top overseas investment banks.