New rules for refinancing trigger A shares: investment bank outbreak initially favors left-hand brokers
Refinancing “unbundling” small and medium-cap technology stocks broke out!
Come to Sina University of Finance and listen to the opening column of the Trading Day Financial Morning Post.
Original title: New rules for refinancing ignite A shares!
The investment banking business is welcoming a period of explosion, and it is expected to increase profits by 3%. Various studies are optimistic about the right brokerage source: The new rules of the refinancing of the Associated Press have become market enthusiasts since the weekend.Soared, the Shanghai stock index rose 2.
2%, the gap before the make-up gap, the GEM index rose sharply 3.
7%, a three-year high, echoed this favorable policy.
Brokerage stocks have also strengthened across the board.
National Gold Securities daily limit, Guoyuan Securities rose 9.
65%, Soochow Securities rose 8.
Hongta Securities, Haitong Securities, Northeast Securities, Oriental Securities, Shanxi Securities, Huatai Securities, and CITIC Securities all rose more than 5%, and the market sentiment burst.
It has been agreed that the new rules for refinancing will bring about a fixed increase in scale and expansion of investment bank business income.
Soochow Securities estimates that the refinancing scale will return to the level of about 2016, corresponding to an increase of about 1 trillion at the current level. Considering the suppression of demand, the increase will exceed 1 trillion.
Measured at a 1% rate, the direct impact on revenue and profit is about 3%.
Some analysts also pointed out that the implementation of the new regulations will support the promotion of diversified financing of high-quality enterprises, and the market for setbacks is expected to pick up. There have been regulatory policy bonuses for building aircraft carrier-level brokerages. Under the new regulations, leading brokerages will benefit more.
The investment banking business is about to explode. How do brokers see new business opportunities? After the new rules for refinancing are implemented, the merger brokers will call the conference on the new rules for emergency situations on the weekend. Non-bank, market strategy analysts, industry analysts, and other departments will attend the meeting.
From the perspective of the overall industry, after the implementation of the new refinancing rules, in addition to the direct benefit of the securities firm’s investment banking business, the reform of the capital market financing system has also ushered in a comprehensive breakthrough.
CITIC Construction Investment: Securities company refinancing underwriting sponsorship and financial advisory business will usher in a bumper harvest CITIC Construction Investment Research report mentioned that in 2019, A-share refinancing (additional issuance + rights issue + preferred stock + convertible bonds + exchangeable bonds)The underwriting amount is US $ 1,2791 billion, assuming no refinancing fee subsidies of zero.
8%, the operating income of the securities industry in 2019 is 350 billion yuan, so the refinancing business in 2019 will contribute 102 to the securities industry.
US $ 3.3 billion, equivalent to 2 of the operating income of the securities industry.
Approximately, before the tightening of the previous round of refinancing rules, the amount of underwriting of A-share refinancing in 2016 could reach 195.2 billion yuan, indicating that there is room for the securities firm’s refinancing underwriting and sponsorship business to recover.
CITIC Securities: The new rules are a balanced elasticity of the performance and estimates of the brokerage firm. CITIC Securities believes that the new rules on refinancing mark a breakthrough in the reform of the capital market financing system. In the future, a reasonable and liquid secondary market will be needed as financing support.The focus of market reform is expected to shift from the primary market to the secondary market, guide long-term funds into the market, improve the trading system and the expansion of derivatives. It is worth looking forward to, and the active secondary market raw materials will catalyze the performance of securities firms and generate greater value elasticity.
Capital market reform opens a new cycle of securities firm development. New businesses require capital strength, risk pricing capabilities, talent reserves, and fintech capabilities. The result of innovation must be differentiation. As in overseas markets, China’s securities industry is expected to have an oligopoly centralized layout.
Combining estimates and fundamentals, we recommend investors to pay attention to Huatai Securities (A / H) and CICC (H).
CICC: Securities companies may merge from potential new business. CICC believes that the new policy of refinancing is slightly more than expected, and the impact of securities companies, pharmaceuticals, and technology industries.
The improvement of the implementation of the refinancing rules focuses on the institutional adjustment and construction of the GEM, which is in line with the trend of supporting China’s economic transformation and industrial upgrading through capital market reforms. From the past, gradually, SMEs and emerging industriesIt is also an active area for refinancing and M & A.
In the medium and long term, it will promote the maturity of the capital market, promote superiority and inferiority, and enhance market vitality, transformation and effectiveness.
In the short term, brokers may accumulate from potential new businesses and be boosted.
Huatai Securities: As the core carrier of the capital market, securities companies will directly benefit from the weighing of Huatai Securities. The refinancing policy has officially landed and the marketization process has accelerated again.
The speed and intensity of the implementation of the system reform were slightly higher than expected, and the optimization of the system reduced the biology of listed companies’ financing doors and the intelligence of investor participation, which will help revitalize the enthusiasm of all parties and improve the market environment from changes in supply and demand.
In the future, the refinancing market is expected to expand, capital market reform will continue to advance, and securities companies will directly benefit as the core carrier of the capital market.
Recommended high-quality leading brokers CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, Haitong Securities, small and medium-sized securities brokers Oriental Securities, and Industrial Securities with high performance flexibility.
The speed and intensity of the policy implementation were slightly higher than expected, and the intensity and speed of the formal launch of the refinancing policy were moderately adjusted for the financing scale and the new and old cut-off rules.Optimize reforms in mechanisms and other aspects.
Guotai Junan: Brokers, asset management and self-employed businesses have all benefited from Guotai Junan’s belief that the new refinancing regulations officially announced the correction of the draft consultation letter to further relax the investment banking business.
The epidemic situation does not change the pace of the capital market. It is expected that the subsequent counter-cyclical adjustments and the favorable policies of the securities industry are expected to exceed expectations.
Guotai Junan research report mentioned that the refinancing business of securities companies ushered in a period of outbreak and enhanced the vitality of the capital market from the source.
1) After the tightening of the refinancing policy in February 2017, the scale of additional issuance (including financial advisors) will increase from 16 years.68 trillion expected in 19 years 0.
The new rules have severely loosened the pricing, exit, and additional issuance of high-level issues, while reducing the refinancing conditions of the GEM (only 23% of the original conditions met the additional issuance requirements). It is expected that the refinancing business of securities firms will usher in an explosive period.
2) Under the assumption of 1% underwriting fee rate, the listed securities company’s gradual increase (main underwriting) in 19 years will account for the proportion of investment bank revenue / total revenue (after adjustment) 3.
3% / 0.
3%, 18% / 3 of the earlier 16 years (expected).
The 1% drop is obvious.
The new rules on refinancing indirectly benefited the mergers and acquisitions and restructuring of securities companies. In 19 years, the “refinancing + M & A and restructuring” of listed securities companies accounted for 29% / 3% of investment bank revenue / total revenue (adjusted).
3) Refinancing loosening will help improve the quality of listed companies and stimulate the vitality of the capital market. Securities brokerage, asset management and self-operated businesses can all benefit.
Soochow Securities: Leading securities firms have benefited more from the Soochow Securities non-bank team’s belief that the conditions for conversion and refinancing will be relaxed and the scale of fixed increase will increase in 2020. The main players implementing the fixed increase are mostly small businesses with a market value of less than 10 billion.
The new rules on refinancing will further enhance the existing securities firms in the capital market, and leading securities firms will benefit more.
(1) The new regulations relaxed the refinancing requirements, appropriate corporate financing, and improved the efficiency of market resource allocation.
Pricing discounts have increased, lock-up periods have been shortened, and restrictions on holdings have been reduced, which has increased market liquidity and has significantly increased its attractiveness to investors, and competition for quality projects may become more intense.
At the same time, the relaxation of the refinancing policy has lowered the overall quality level of the fixed-income stocks, which has expanded the challenges of fixed-income investors.
(2) For the securities firms, the new refinancing rules will bring about a fixed increase in scale and expansion of investment banking business income. We expect the refinancing scale to return to the level of about 2016, corresponding to the current level of about trillions of increments. Taking into accountDemand suppression, the increase reached more than one trillion, measured at a rate of 1%, the direct impact on income and profit is about 3%.
(3) There is a clear concentration trend in the investment banking business. The refinancing underwriting scale CR5 has increased from 38% in 2016 to 63% in 2019H1. The refinancing liberalization has increased the value of direct financing in 杭州夜网论坛 the capital market, and the supervision and guidance have led to the creation of aircraft carrier-grade securities firms.Under the background, leading securities firms will benefit in depth, and it is recommended to pay attention to CITIC Securities, CICC, Huatai Securities.
The Matthew effect of refinancing in 2019 is obvious. What is the size of the refinancing market of CITIC CITIC Huatai in the top three in the past year?
WIND data shows that the total scale of equity financing in 2019 is 15,323.
7.5 billion yuan, of which 2532 were raised in the IPO.
4.8 billion yuan, an additional 6,798 funds raised.
1.9 billion yuan.
The rights issue, preference shares and convertible bonds raised 13.4 billion, 255 billion and 247.8 billion, respectively.
Data source: How will the financial terminal of wind financial 北京桑拿洗浴保健 terminal divide the refinancing cake in 2019?
The Associated Press found by wind financial terminal data statistics that in the scale of refinancing underwriting in 2019, CITIC Securities raised a total of 1565.
3.4 billion ranked first, with 574 additional funds raised.
7.8 billion, convertible bonds 739.
1.8 billion, a total of 38 underwriting.
Source of data: The total amount of refinancing underwriting of Wind Financial Terminal CICC is 1063.
3.4 billion came in second place, with an additional issue of 848.
1.4 billion, convertible bonds 161.
0.6 billion, a total of 21 underwriters.
The total amount of Huatai United Securities refinancing underwriting was 1,040.
02 trillion ranked third, with an additional 752 raised.
6.4 billion, 150 convertible bonds.
8.2 billion, a total of 36 underwriters.
The total amount of refinancing underwriting of CITIC Construction Investment was 886.
14 trillion ranked fourth, with 553 additional funds raised.
5.5 billion yuan, convertible bonds 162.
08 trillion, a total of 45 underwriters.
The amount of Oriental Citi Securities is 654.9.6 billion yuan, raising 576.
70 trillion, 40 trillion convertible bonds, a total of 8 underwriters.
In addition, Guotai Junan Securities, Yangtze River Underwriting Sponsor, GF Securities, China Merchants Securities, and HSBC Qianhai Securities ranked sixth in the refinancing list?
On the scale of the issuance in 2019, the reporter of the Associated Press also made preliminary statistics.
The data shows that the total amount of additional funds raised by CICC was 902.
2.8 billion ranked first with 13 underwriters.
The total amount of additional funds raised by Huatai United Securities is 889.
2.1 billion ranked second with 29 underwriters.
The total amount of additional capital raised by CITIC Securities was 826.
1.6 billion ranked third, with 24 underwriters.
The total amount of additional capital raised by CITIC Securities was 724.
07 trillion ranked fourth, with 31 underwriters.
Oriental Citi Securities issued a total additional capital of 614.
9.6 billion, 7 underwriters.
In addition, Guotai Junan, Yangtze River Underwriting Sponsor, GF Securities, China Merchants Securities, HSBC Qianhai Securities ranked sixth?
In terms of refinancing business, securities investment banks have a clear head concentration trend.
According to the Soochow Securities Research Report, the top five refinancing underwriting scales increased from 38% in 2016 to 63% in the first quarter of 2019.
The implementation of the new regulations will support the promotion of diversified financing of high-quality companies, and the market is expected to pick up. There have been regulatory dividends for building aircraft carrier-level brokerages before. The new regulations will benefit leading brokerages even more.
Large companies released the new version of the financing solution overnight. Market participants generally believe that the implementation of the new refinancing rules will benefit the securities industry, especially cutting-edge securities firms with obvious advantages in investment banking. At the same time, it will benefit small and medium-sized GEM stocks; TMT, biomedicine, etc.Industry sectors with refinancing needs and scale expansion will also benefit.
Data show that currently there are 291 companies in A-shares that have issued refinancing plans, involving a scale of 476.3 billion.
The agency believes that the new four-in-one refinancing policy will increase the attractiveness of fixed-income market investments.
On the evening of February 16, a new version of the financing plan was merged with a listed company.
Yuanli shares: In accordance with the new refinancing rules, the company amended the plan for non-public offering of shares.
The revised content mainly includes 4 aspects: the number of release objects, the release pricing principle, the sale restriction period, the release quantity, etc.
After the amendment, the number of issuers shall be adjusted to no more than 35; the issue price shall be modified to be no less than 80% of the average price of the company’s stock trading on the 20 trading days before the first day of the issue period; the number of non-publicly issued A shares shall be raised to no more than73.44 million shares; and the restricted period is reduced to 6 months.
Longsheng Technology: Announced a plan to adjust the fixed increase plan, in which the issue target is adjusted to not more than 35; the issue price is adjusted to not less than 80% of the average price of the company’s stock on the 20 trading days before the first day of the issue period;It cannot be transferred within 6 months from the end of the issuance.
Gloria: to terminate the non-public offering of shares in 2019; at the same time, disclose the 2020 non-public offering of shares.
The company intends to issue non-public shares not exceeding 18.7 million shares at an issue price of 123.
56 yuan / share, the raised funds shall not exceed 23.
1.1 billion US dollars, after deducting the issuance costs, the full amount will be used to supplement working capital.
Gaofeng Capital intends to subscribe and issue all non-publicly issued stocks in cash by means of Gaolong Capital Management Co., Ltd. – HCM China Fund, which it manages.