Bank of Shanghai (601229): High increase in consumer loans leads to a significant rise in interest margins, need to focus on capital constraints
Investment suggestion: Bank of Shanghai’s 2018 performance is in line with expectations, optimizing the asset allocation structure, and increasing the distribution of consumer loans, mainly retail loans, to drive high-speed growth while increasing net interest margins; pressure on asset quality has increased, and bad generation has risen slightly;To the constraints of subsequent capital, the company’s net profit growth attributable to the parent in 2019/20 is expected to be 15 respectively.
1 %% and 12.
9%, ignoring the transfer of capital reserve to share capital for the time being, the EPS is 1.
05 yuan / share, the current sustainable corresponding 19/20 PE is 7 respectively.
1X / 6.
2X, PB are 0.
89X / 0.
In the past two years, the Bank of Shanghai has evaluated the PB hub at 1.
Around 0X, we estimate the reasonable value of the company’s A shares at 14.
35 yuan / share, maintain BUY rating.
Risk warning: 1. Economic growth exceeds expectations; 2. Asset quality deteriorates severely.
Core point of view: The 杭州桑拿网 performance is basically in line with expectations. High revenue growth drives revenue and PPOP high growth. Bank of Shanghai released the 2018 annual performance report and achieved revenue of 438 in 2018.
90,000 yuan, an increase of 32 in ten years.
49%, the growth rate is earlier than Q3 (ten years +29.
49%) rose 3%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 180.
30,000 yuan, an increase of 17 in ten years.
65% compared to the third quarter (previously +22.
46%) down 4.
80pcts, performance is basically in line with expectations.
Among them, net interest income was 299.
40,000 yuan, an increase of 56 in ten years.
60% (VSQ3: +47.
92%, up 8.
68%); net income from program fees 59.
800 million, down 4 every year.
41% (VSQ3: -2.
77%, the decline increased by 1.
64pcts); realized pre-provision profit of 345.
80,000 yuan, an increase of 39 in ten years.
72%, an increase of 4 over the previous Q3.
The 18-year optimization of asset allocation structure increased credit placement, and the net interest margin increased significantly over the longer period of 51bps.
76%, a year-on-year increase of 51bps (the earlier 18H1 increased by 21bps), and the net interest margin was 1.
81%, an increase of 43bps (previously 18H1 increased by 19bps), mainly due to the company’s optimization of the asset allocation structure, increased credit placement speed, and strengthened pricing management, driving the average yield of interest-earning assets to increase by 53bps; meanwhile, the average interest rate offsets the moderate increase, Only increase by 10bps per year.
The asset allocation was tilted towards loans, and consumer loans led to a high increase in retail loans1, and the company’s total assets at the end of 18 years were 2.0278 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.
17%, an increase of 3 from the previous quarter.55% (VSQ3: +2.
(06%), Q4 assets expanded slightly, of which loans expanded by 850.7 billion, an increase of 28 during the same period.
11%, an increase of 2 from the previous month.
31%, of which personal loans were 2,768 ppm, an annual increase of 59.
05%, a month-on-month growth rate of up to 10.
02%, US $ 5,739 trillion in corporate loans (including discounts), a year-on-year increase of 17.
12%, contraction from the previous month.
03%; while the assets of the same industry and investment assets maintained steady growth, with multiple growth rates of 3 respectively.
11% and 3.
2. The debt budget is 1.866 billion yuan, an annual increase of 12.
39%, an increase of 3 from the previous quarter.
67%; of which the deposit balance at the end of 18 years was 1,042.5 billion yuan, an annual increase of 12.
87%, an increase of 3% from the previous month. At the same time, Q4 increased the industry’s resistance in a timely manner, and the industry’s resistance increased by 8 from the previous month.
14% (an increase of 11 a year.
3. The development of consumer finance led to breakthroughs in retail credit. At the end of 18, consumer loans (including credit cards) increased by 100% year-on-year to 188.4 billion, accounting for 68.
07% (an increase of 14 a year.
01), much higher than the housing mortgage loan 26.
29% of the total.
Non-performing loans increased, pressure on asset quality increased; capital consumption accelerated, and the non-performing loan ratio for 18 years1.
14%, up 6bps from the previous month; the balance of non-performing loans rose 7 from the previous month.
3.4 billion to 97.
At the end of 18, the company’s overdue loans over 90 days to non-performing loans ratio was 79.
0% (VS18H1: 61.
6%), an increase of 9 over the end of 17.
2pcts, overdue loan rate increased to 64bps to 1.
69% (2018H1: 1.
48%) Asset quality deteriorated slightly.
2. After calculation, add back write-offs and transfer out 18 years after the bad generation substitute 0.
89% (VS18Q3: 0.
(60%, annualized), the generation of defectives increased slightly from the previous month; provision coverage ratio rose slightly from 12pcs to 333%.
3. Due to the high growth rate of capital consumption of loans, the company’s core tier 1 capital, tier 1 capital and capital adequacy ratios decreased by 0.
33% to 9.