Wanhua Chemical (600309): Continue to raise MDI’s listed price in May, first-quarter performance slightly exceeds expectations

Wanhua Chemical (600309): Continue to raise MDI’s listed price in May, first-quarter performance slightly exceeds expectations

The first quarter of 2019’s performance slightly exceeded expectations. Wanhua Chemical announced 1Q19 results: operating income of 159.

5.2 billion, down 8 previously.

3%; Attributable net profit 27.

9.5 billion, down 46% previously, corresponding to 0 earnings.

89 yuan; net profit after deduction is 24.

1.6 billion, of which government subsidies included in the current profit and loss4.

6.4 billion, the replacement of revenue and net profit was mainly due to the reduction in gross profit margin brought by the replacement of MDI prices.

The development trend raised the MDI listing price in May, and the tight supply and demand situation in the industry continued.

The company announced that the aggregate MDI distribution / direct sales market listing price in May was 19,000 / 19,500 yuan / ton, up 1,200 yuan / ton from April, and the pure MDI listing price was 27,200 yuan / ton, up 1,000 yuan / ton from April.

The current pure MDI market price is 24,000 yuan / ton, an increase of 17% over the earlier period, and the aggregate MDI market price is 18,000 yuan / ton, an increase of 56% over the earlier period. Last year, it fell by 15% / 15%.

At present, the main manufacturers are generally offering at a discount. Many MDI devices in the Asia-Pacific region are planned to be overhauled from the end of April to July. The average shutdown time is about 30 days. The tight supply in the market continues. The supply side provides strong support for product price growth.Downstream refrigerators and freezers and other centralized stocking time, peak season MDI prices are expected to continue to rise.

In the medium and long term, the margin of supply and demand improves, and MDI prices will continue to repair.

After Wanhua officially consolidated BC, the polyurethane sector continued to grow, with MDI production capacity of 210 entering the world’s number one, and the top of the faucet was further highlighted.

In 2018, there were 44 indicators of new global production capacity. In addition to Wanhua’s own expansion in 2019, only Covestro plans to add 20 tons of production capacity in Brunsbettel, Germany. It is expected to be released in the fourth quarter of 2019 and affect the production in 2020.Smaller, the global supply and demand structure improved, it is expected that MDI prices will continue to repair.

The petrochemical sector, new materials and fine chemicals continue to deepen the company’s moat, and the value of the integrated park has been revalued.

The company’s large ethylene project is under construction, modified MDI, PMMA continues to extend to the automotive industry chain, and the moat continues to deepen; the company’s own integrated park, supporting production, complete environmental protection and safety facilities, adopting China’s safety and environmental protection policy high pressure, open to foreign investmentWith the promotion of legal intellectual property protection, domestic compliance enterprises will enter a new stage of development.

Earnings forecast We maintain our 2019 / 2020e earnings forecast3.

98/4.

42 yuan is unchanged.

It is estimated and suggested that the company currently can sustainly correspond to 11/10 times P / E in 19/20.

Maintain the recommended level and target price of 58 yuan, corresponding to 19/20 14.

5/13.

2x P / E, compared with current expectations of 32%.

The price of risky crude oil fluctuated sharply, and downstream demand was less than expected, and the center of the 无锡夜网 estimate was lowered.