Zhengbang Technology (002157) 2019 Interim Report Performance Preview Comment: 2019Q2 Turnaround Losses, Focus on the Development of Pig Breeding Business
Matters: The company releases semi-annual performance notice: the net profit attributable to mothers will decrease.
Comment: 2019Q2 turned a loss on a month-on-month basis, and the cost of pig farming is under control.
From January to June 2019, the company expects net profit attributable to mothers to increase by 2.
80,000 yuan, of which, in the second quarter of 2019, net profit attributable to mothers1.
94 trillion, exceeding market expectations.
The total number of companies in Q2 2019 was 140.
60,000 heads, with an average sales price of 14.
At about 6 yuan / kg, the weight of the slaughtering is about 115 kg. We initially estimated that the full cost of the company’s breeding is about 14 / kg, which was 12 before the occurrence of non-blast.
With a full cost of 5 yuan / kg, the company’s hog breeding cost can be controlled.
The company transferred assets + increased capital and focused on the development of pig breeding business.
The company intends to transfer 100% of Jiangxi Zhengbang Crop Protection Co., Ltd. to Jiangxi Yonglian (held by Mr. Lin Yinsun, the actual controller of the company), with a total transfer price of 13.
The purpose of this equity transfer is: the company will concentrate resources, focus on building the pig breeding industry chain, and improve the competitiveness of the industry.
Jiangxi Zhengbang Crop Protection achieved net profit in 20181.
One trillionth, this distribution transfer price-earnings ratio is about 12 times, consistent with the acquisition of the property rights of pesticide targets by similar listed companies since December 2018; until March 31, 2019, Jiangxi Zhengbang Crop Protection has net assets4.
1.5 billion yuan, the equity transfer price ratio reached 3.
2 times; the distribution price-earnings ratio and price-to-book ratio for this distribution are reasonable.
In addition, the company plans to invest 1 billion in Jiangxi Zhengbang Breeding Co., Ltd. with its own funds. After the capital increase, the registered capital of Zhengbang Breeding will be increased from 6.
6 ‰ increased to 16.
600 million US dollars, this capital increase is also to promote the development of aquaculture business, enhance the overall operating strength and financing capacity, as the basis for the subsequent development of Zhengbang aquaculture.
The logic of hitting a new high for pig prices across the country has entered the redemption period.
The first severe outbreak occurred in the six provinces of Northeast, Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu, Hebei, and Anhui. It took about 5 months for the pig prices in each place to drop to the lowest level. The second severe outbreak occurred in Guangdong, Guangxi, and Yunnan.It took only about 2 months to reach the bottom, and the decline in pig prices was significantly weaker than the first wave; the third wave of severe epidemics appeared in Sichuan, Hunan, and Hubei, but only caused the national average price to fall slightly in the short term.Prices have stabilized and picked up.
The top ten provinces currently account for 66 of the country’s total pig production.
1%, from high to low, Sichuan, Henan, Hunan, Shandong, Hubei, Yunnan, Hebei, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Jiangxi.
As of now, in general, all major pig producing areas have experienced the baptism of African swine fever, and the production capacity in various places has been clearly cleared. The logic of setting a new high for the national pig price has entered the redemption 深圳桑拿网 period.
Earnings forecasts, estimates and investment ratings.
The non-plague-prone pig breeding industry has greatly reduced capacity, and we expect pig prices to rise to 25-30 yuan / kg before the Spring Festival next year.
Because the development of non-blast vaccines is difficult to achieve overnight, and the establishment and improvement of the pig safety system requires the financial strength of the farm scale, the price of pigs is expected to remain high for a long time, and the advantages of large pig breeding groups are prominent.
We maintain that we expect the company to produce 7 million pigs, 8.4 million pigs, and 10.8 million pigs in 2019-2021, corresponding to a revenue of 255.
7.5 billion, 353.
01 ppm, 390.
9.3 billion, corresponding to net profit attributable to mother 9.
94 ppm, 89.
700 million, 96.880,000 yuan, an increase of 414%, 802% and 8% each year, corresponding to zero income.
42 yuan, 3.
78 yuan, 4.
The company’s profit high is expected to be reached in 2020. The hog sector is more than 10 times the PE at the high point.
8 yuan, maintaining the “strong push” level.
Risk warning: pig prices fall sharply; disease.