Shanghai Airport (600009): Core Asset Bank Stable and Far

Shanghai Airport (600009): Core Asset Bank Stable and Far

Event: On March 22, Shanghai Airport released its 2018 annual report (1) Business: Gradually achieving 50 aircraft takeoffs and landings.

480,000 times, an increase of 1 every year.

61%; passengers exploded 7,400.

650,000 person-times, an increase of 5 in ten years.

72%, of which 3,757 were international and regional passengers.

380,000 person-times, an annual increase of 8.

23%, international and regional tourists accounted for 50.

77%.

(2) Finance: Initially realized operating income of 93.

13 ppm, an increase of 15 in ten years.

51%; realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies42.

31 ppm, an increase of 14 in ten years.

88%; net profit after deduction is 42.

35 ppm, an increase of 14 in ten years.

92%.

Comments: 1.

In the non-aviation-dominated era, retail revenue continued to grow at a high rate. In 2018, Shanghai Airport achieved aviation revenue39.

70 ppm, a six-year increase of 6.

58%, benefiting from the optimization of passenger structure, its growth rate is slightly higher than takeoffs and landings and passenger explosions.

Non-aviation revenue 53.

44 trillion, an increase of 3 compared to 2017.

.

57% to 57.

38%, of which commercial retail revenue was 39.

86 ppm, an increase of 33 in ten years.

22%, passenger spending capacity continued to significantly improve.

On the cost side, operating costs total 44.

99 ppm, an increase of 11 years.

21%, slightly higher than expected, mainly due to the increase in maintenance costs and commissioned management costs in operating costs.

Specifically, maintenance costs increased for the second time in the past in 2015, and the increase was one-off; the increase in entrusted management fees was affected by the increase in tax revenue and the tender of the new satellite agency business, and it is likely to continue to rise in the future.

Looking forward to 2019, the overall risk of Shanghai Airport’s cost side can be controlled. In terms of rent, it is expected that the rent paid by the company to the group in 2019 will increase by 50%, which is 3 higher than in 2018.

US $ 4.7 billion, with limited new rents. At the same time, the company disclosed that the satellite office budget was US $ 16.7 billion, making the impact of depreciation clearer.

2.

The launch of the Satellite Hall is imminent. Starting a new cycle of growth and new capacity allocation is an important means of opening up the airport’s value space. Looking at major domestic hub airports, the commissioning of new capacity is often the beginning of a new round of airport value enhancement.

Shanghai Airport has entered a mature stage. The passenger structure has been continuously optimized, and the passenger consumption capacity has continued to improve. It is able to cross the infrastructure cycle through the increase of non-airline income levels.

Specifically, the value increase brought by the commissioning of the new satellite hall was realized in multiple dimensions.

① In terms of supply, new throughput opens up the upstream of Shanghai Airport, and the space for optimization of the upper limit and passenger structure will increase in the future; ② In terms of duty-free business, the duty-free area will be increased from 6,600 square meters to 16,915 square meters, and the increase in duty-free area will increase passengersThe increase of consumption power will further release its tax-exempt income elasticity; ③ In terms of advertising revenue, the commissioning of the satellite hall will bring new advertising revenue. At present, the advertising contract of Shanghai Airport is shortened earlier, and its profitability fully reflects the advertising of Shanghai AirportBusiness value. After the new satellite hall is put into production, it will become a new advertising contract. Although the current business model and advertising area are unknown, the value of the advertising business at Shanghai Airport is certain. The new advertising contract brings more value space.Inevitable trend.

3.The tax-free bonus is still in the release period, seizing certain opportunities, and the first-tier city airport is the highest quality core asset of China’s civil aviation industry.
The proportion of non-aviation revenue of Shanghai Airport is further increased, and it is clear again that it is entering the era of non-aviation introduction.

The Shanghai Airport at this stage must re-examine its investment value from two aspects.

First, the performance increase brought by the increase of the tax-free deduction rate is deterministic, and the value should be realized in advance to reflect that the tax-free deduction rate of the T2 terminal in 2019 will be 深圳spa会所 increased to 42.

5%, the one-time growth momentum of tax-exempt income has been identified.

Second, we must pay attention to the opportunity for performance growth brought about by the increase in passenger consumption levels and demand growth. The continued high growth of commercial airport rental income in Shanghai Airport from 2017 to 2018 is a reflection of the value of passenger consumption levels.

Compared with Asia-Pacific, European airports with relatively mature business models, the per capita non-air revenue of international passengers in Shanghai Airport in 2018 was 93 yuan, which has reached the global leading level. Considering the continuous release of on-board production capacity and the increase of the deduction rate, it has become a global internationalIt is only a matter of time before the airport with the highest consumer spending power.

Choosing Shanghai Airport at the current time is to be friends with time. The long-term steady growth trend has been clear, and the rest is just waiting for time for feedback.

4.

Investment suggestion: The company’s operating income is expected to be 122 in 2019-2021.

38, 140.

22, 151.

65 ppm, net profit was 51.

61, 58.

06, 67.

04 trillion, corresponding to 22 PE.

38 times, 19.

90 times, 17.

23 times.

Maintain the “Recommended” level.

Risk reminders: aviation accidents, major policy changes, the rapid growth of tax-free business, investment income has fallen sharply, operating costs have risen sharply, and the duty-free shop business in the city has hit