Bank of Chengdu (601838) Quarterly Review: Excellent Asset Quality and High Growth
Event: On the evening of October 30, Chengdu Bank disclosed 3Q19 results: revenue 93.
0.2 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of +10.
5%; net profit attributable to mother 40.
0.7杭州夜网论坛 billion, +18.
01%; ROE (annualization) is estimated to be 12.
As of the end of September 19, the asset scale was US $ 543.1 billion, with a NPL ratio of 1.
45%, loan-to-loan ratio of 3.
Opinion: The rapid growth of revenue growth is a base effect, and net profit continues to grow at a high speed.
After 15 years of concentrated exposure to risks, risk appetite has been depressed, 16 years have seen a low growth rate in performance, and 17 years have gradually come out of the low.
Since 17 years, the growth rate of revenue has continued to rise. By 1H18, its growth rate reached a stage high, and it has since declined.
Revenue growth in 1H19 was 10.
5%, the earlier 1H19 fell slightly, mainly due to the high base effect of 1H18.
Net profit continued to increase.
19Q1 / 1H19 / 深圳spa会所 3Q19 return to the mother net profit growth rate was 22.
0% / 18.
0%, the trend of high growth is still maintained under the high base of 18 years, which gradually shows that its high growth is stable and sustainable, or it marks one of the warnings of its poor digestion.
The net interest margin fell slightly, and the ROE exceeded the 3Q19 net interest margin by 2.
07%, down 8BP earlier in 1H19; the slight downward spread of interest rates reflects the decline in asset yield and resistance to rising costs.
However, the listed city commercial banks with net interest margins still have an average advantage.
Chengdu Bank has a sustainable and better customer base, and the cost of debt has certain advantages, only 2 in the third quarter of 19th.
The low return on assets is sufficient to match the risk appetite, which also proves its better asset quality.
In the third quarter of 19, the revised ROE (annualization) reached 12.
23%, leading level for listed banks.
Thanks to the rapid growth of earnings, ROE is located in the upward channel.
The risk appetite on the loan side has not improved, and the risk appetite after 15 years of guaranteed asset quality in the future is low, which is reflected in: 1) The proportion of loans to high-risk public and retail sectors is only 12.
6% (up to 42 at 13 years.
0%, 28 in 15 years.
5%), unprecedented pressure drop, especially retail, almost just a loan; 2) Embracing infrastructure / municipal loans, leasing business services and water conservancy and environmental public facilities are the top two industries for public companies, and the proportion of loans in 1H19 increasedUp to 2.
9 pct to 42.
This strategy of low risk appetite remained in 1H19.
Bad and forward-looking indicators have fallen sharply.
Non-performing rate in the third quarter of 19
45%, concerned about the loan rate1.
22%, all continue the downward trend.
1H19 overdue ratio / overdue 90+ ratio are 1.
82% / 1.
09%, down 28BP / 41BP earlier.
The proportion of non-performing high-income areas in the loan structure has dropped, and future risk exposures have also contracted.
Investment suggestion: bad liquidation or near end, and continuous high net profit growth. Bank of Chengdu suffered from bad outbreaks in 15 and 16 years, and the risk was significantly reduced. It requires several disposals and credit structure adjustments.
In the third quarter of 19, asset quality remained excellent, and future non-performing income was not significant.
Bank of Chengdu has a better customer base, and is steadily advancing its transformation towards “refining, big retail, digital”.
Committed to the outstanding asset quality of Chengdu Bank, ROE leads, giving it 1.
Double the 20-year PB target estimate, corresponding to a target price of 12.
17 yuan / share, maintain buy evaluation.
Risk warning: Chengdu regional economy has obvious downside risks; interest margins have fallen sharply.